Everybody’s got an opinion about the housing market right now. Your neighbor, your coworker, people who haven’t looked at real data in a long time. Most of what you’re hearing traces back to national headlines, and national headlines have almost nothing to do with what’s happening on your street here in the Phoenix Metro.
So let’s cut through the noise. For a couple of years, the story was runaway prices and bidding wars, and buyers kept getting priced out. Then the story flipped to “the crash is coming.” Neither one describes where we are today. What we’ve actually got is a market that’s leveling out, and that’s a healthier place to be than either extreme.
Here’s the shorthand for what’s changed. A balanced market is generally about 5 to 6 months of supply, the point where neither side has the whole deck. Nationally, we’re sitting at about 4.6 months right now, still tilted toward sellers but far steadier than the frenzy years, though not fully into balanced range yet. That’s the frame. What it means for you depends on which side of the closing table you’re on.
For sellers, the shift is real, but it isn’t bad news. The days of listing a home and fielding ten offers by the weekend are behind us, and that trips up sellers who are still pricing for 2021. Here’s what’s holding steady, though: well-positioned homes are still selling, and they’re still getting strong demand. Prices aren’t dropping, they’re stabilizing, and they still tend to peak in the summer months the way they always have.
The difference now is that price is doing the heavy lifting. Put your home on the market at the right number, and it moves. Reach for a number the market left behind a few years ago and it sits, then you end up chasing it down with cuts anyway. Expect a little more negotiation than you would’ve seen at the peak, and expect buyers to actually look at comparable listings, because they’ve got options now. Price it right out of the gate and none of that works against you.
“The national numbers are a starting point, not the answer. What matters is your neighborhood and your situation.”
For buyers, this is the most breathing room you’ve had in years. Inventory is growing, and that’s genuinely one of the biggest stories of the year. More homes on the market means more to choose from, and it means you’re not forced to waive every contingency and write an offer in a panic before someone outbids you. You’ve got time to actually look, to get a real inspection, to line up your financing without a gun to your head.
Rates have helped too. The 30-year fixed has settled into the mid-6% range, well below the 7%-plus rates buyers faced a couple of years ago, and every fraction of a point matters when you’re financing a home. Rates aren’t going back to 3%, but they’ve stabilized and come well off their peak, and that’s pulled some buyers off the sidelines. The thing to understand is that more options doesn’t mean it’s a fire sale. Sellers who price correctly are still getting strong interest, so the good homes still go. Leverage is back on your side, but you still have to move with intention.
Here’s what I want you to take away from all of it. The national numbers are a starting point, not the answer. Phoenix is really several markets stacked on top of each other, and what’s true in one neighborhood can be the opposite two zip codes over. Whether you’re buying or selling, the move that matters is getting the real numbers for your specific situation instead of reacting to a headline written about the whole country.
If you want to know what the market actually looks like where you are, reach out, and I’ll walk you through the real numbers. Call or text me at 602-502-6468, email me at bret@rngaz.com, or visit Phoenix Real Estate Video Blog with Bret Johnson. Bring me your neighborhood and your situation, and I’ll help you make the call based on data instead of noise.
